Taiwan Confident in Trump US Transit Approval Despite China Trade Truce
- Taiwan expects the Trump administration to approve President Lai’s US transit for an upcoming Latin America trip despite a previous denial in August.
- The diplomatic context is complicated by a fragile "Busan Accord" trade truce between the US and China and a severe Beijing-Tokyo row over Taiwan remarks.
- Taipei is strengthening ties with Europe and South Africa while urging de-escalation in the China-Japan dispute to maintain regional stability.
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| Image From Facebook/ 英文 |
Taiwan is projecting calm confidence that the Trump administration will greenlight a high profile US transit for President Lai Ching te. This optimism comes despite a tense diplomatic tightrope walk involving a fragile trade truce with China and an escalating feud between Beijing and Tokyo. Foreign Minister Lin Chia lung confirmed in a recent interview that Taipei expects no issues with the stopover plan which is a standard but politically sensitive practice for Taiwanese leaders visiting allies in Latin America.
The diplomatic landscape is far more volatile than usual. Just months ago in August 2025 the Trump White House reportedly blocked a similar transit request. That denial was a strategic move to avoid torpedoing high stakes trade negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Those talks eventually culminated in a one year trade truce signed in Busan South Korea in October. The deal saw the US agree to lower tariffs on Chinese goods to around 47% in exchange for Beijing lifting restrictions on rare earth exports. With that "Busan Accord" now signed and signed Taipei believes the political sensitivity of a US stopover has decreased significantly.
However the regional security picture remains messy. A fierce diplomatic spat has erupted between China and Japan following comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, a known hawk, stated that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could constitute an "existential crisis" for Japan and hinted at deploying the Self Defense Forces. Beijing furiously branded this a violation of its "red line" and retaliated with economic measures including a ban on Japanese seafood and travel warnings. Taiwan has found itself in the middle of this storm but has chosen a "soft approach" by encouraging tourism to Japan to offset Chinese boycotts.
Taiwan's top diplomat Lin Chia lung emphasized that further escalation benefits no one. He noted that it would likely take a year for Sino Japanese tensions to stabilize. In the meantime Taipei is quietly shoring up its own alliances. The government is planning a January meeting with South African officials to settle a dispute over its representative office location and is deepening ties with Europe on security and supply chain resilience. Vice President Hsiao Bi khim’s recent trip to Brussels to address European lawmakers highlights this pivot toward a broader coalition of democracies.
The looming question is how Donald Trump will navigate these competing interests. He is planning a state visit to China early next year to cement the trade truce. Allowing President Lai to transit through the US before that trip could anger Beijing and jeopardize the fragile economic peace. Yet denying the transit again would signal weakness to allies and potentially contradict the Trump administration's own "peace through strength" rhetoric in the Indo Pacific.
Officials in Taipei insist they have "no doubt" about Trump's commitment to regional security. They are banking on the idea that Washington can walk and chew gum at the same time—maintaining a trade deal with China while upholding its unofficial but vital support for Taiwan. Whether this confidence is misplaced will depend on whether Trump prioritizes his new deal with Xi over traditional diplomatic protocols with the island democracy.