Health Insurance Crisis, Will You Pay 50% More For Health Insurance in 2026?

Table of Contents

Summery

• The expiration of pandemic-era tax subsidies is expected to cause ACA premiums to soar in 2026, forcing many healthy individuals to drop coverage due to unaffordability.
• The exit of younger, healthier enrollees will leave a sicker, costlier insurance pool, likely triggering a "spiral" of even higher premium increases—potentially 7% to 11.5%—in 2027.
• Vulnerable individuals with pre-existing conditions are facing a crisis, unable to afford rising costs but unable to go without care, leading to widespread anxiety and financial strain.

Photo by Hush Naidoo Jade Photography on Unsplash

The Affordable Care Act is facing a crisis of affordability as pandemic era tax subsidies expire, leaving many Americans bracing for steep premium hikes in 2026 and likely even higher costs in 2027. Elina Linderman, a tax specialist from Florida, is one of many who have decided to forgo health insurance entirely next year after calculating that her monthly premiums would jump to $1,500 a 50% increase for worse coverage. This mass exodus of healthy individuals from the marketplace threatens to destabilize the insurance pool. When younger and healthier people leave, the remaining pool becomes older and sicker on average, forcing insurers to raise prices further to cover the higher per person medical costs. Experts warn this could trigger a "spiral" where rising premiums drive more people away, leading to even higher premiums the following year.

 

The political gridlock in Washington has exacerbated the situation. The Senate recently failed to pass a bill that would have extended the enhanced premium tax credits, leaving millions of enrollees facing higher bills just days before the enrollment deadline. While the original subsidies remain, they are far less generous than the temporary enhancements that kept costs stable for many. Actuaries predict that the loss of healthy enrollees alone could drive up premiums by 7% to 11.5% in 2027, on top of normal medical inflation. Early data from state marketplaces like Pennsylvania's Pennie already shows a significant drop in new enrollees, particularly among younger adults, signaling that the feared "adverse selection" is already underway.

 

For those with chronic conditions, the choice is even more dire. Joseph Morris, a 61 year old hairstylist with glaucoma and high blood pressure, faces the terrifying prospect of being uninsured because he can no longer afford his premiums without the enhanced subsidies. Unlike healthy individuals who might risk going without coverage, people like Morris are trapped in a system that feels increasingly unaffordable. Insurance agents report heart wrenching conversations with clients who are forced to choose between their health and their financial survival, with many concluding that there is "nothing affordable" left in the Affordable Care Act.